I R PInnovative Resources for Payors
	
[Federal Register: May 8, 1998 (Proposed Rules)]
[Page 25675-25715]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr08my98-17]
 
[[pp. 25675-25715]] Medicare Program; Changes to the Hospital Inpatient Prospective 
Payment Systems and Fiscal Year 1999 Rates

[[Continued from page 25674]]

[[Page 25675]]

                                                                                                                                                        
294.....................................           82039          4.9200               1               2               4               6               9
295.....................................            3593          3.9585               1               2               3               5               7
296.....................................          235524          5.3934               2               3               4               7              10
297.....................................           32715          3.6521               1               2               3               4               7
298.....................................              91          3.7253               1               1               2               4               8
299.....................................             968          5.3657               1               2               4               7              10
300.....................................           16820          6.2855               2               3               5               8              12
301.....................................            2395          3.8113               1               2               3               5               7
302.....................................            7784         10.1382               5               6               8              12              18
303.....................................           19638          9.2247               4               5               7              10              16
304.....................................           12813          8.9904               2               4               7              11              18
305.....................................            2552          3.8985               1               2               3               5               7
306.....................................           10658          5.5019               1               2               3               7              12
307.....................................            2355          2.3996               1               1               2               3               4
308.....................................            9167          6.0165               1               2               4               8              13
309.....................................            3541          2.5945               1               1               2               3               5
310.....................................           26694          4.2835               1               2               3               5               9
311.....................................            7805          1.9543               1               1               1               2               4
312.....................................            1731          4.3437               1               1               3               6               9
313.....................................             587          2.3799               1               1               2               3               5
314.....................................               1         10.0000              10              10              10              10              10
315.....................................           28283          8.0413               1               2               5              10              18
316.....................................           93071          6.8024               2               3               5               9              14
317.....................................             787          2.8666               1               1               2               3               6
318.....................................            6194          6.1022               1               3               5               8              12
319.....................................             407          2.9902               1               1               2               4               6
320.....................................          177474          5.5698               2               3               4               7              10
321.....................................           23679          4.0416               2               2               3               5               7
322.....................................              82          4.1098               2               2               3               4               7
323.....................................           16931          3.2166               1               1               2               4               6
324.....................................            7513          1.9385               1               1               1               2               4
325.....................................            7409          3.9591               1               2               3               5               8
326.....................................            2192          2.7199               1               1               2               3               5
327.....................................               9          2.8889               1               1               2               3               4
328.....................................             759          3.7167               1               2               3               5               7
329.....................................              87          2.2644               1               1               1               3               4
331.....................................           43598          5.5769               1               3               4               7              11
332.....................................            4517          3.5603               1               1               3               5               7
333.....................................             306          4.9477               1               2               4               6              11
334.....................................           18572          4.9690               3               3               4               6               8
335.....................................           10338          3.7163               2               3               3               4               5
336.....................................           54082          3.6046               1               2               3               4               7
337.....................................           31770          2.2858               1               1               2               3               4
338.....................................            2767          4.7879               1               2               3               6              10
339.....................................            1987          4.1726               1               1               3               5               9
340.....................................               2          1.0000               1               1               1               1               1
341.....................................            4909          2.9589               1               1               2               3               6
342.....................................            1007          3.4518               1               2               2               4               7
344.....................................            3882          2.6285               1               1               1               3               5
345.....................................            1343          3.6389               1               1               2               4               8
346.....................................            4844          5.8179               1               3               4               7              11
347.....................................             365          3.1370               1               1               2               4               6
348.....................................            3181          4.2521               1               2               3               5               8
349.....................................             632          2.7658               1               1               2               4               5
350.....................................            6114          4.3999               2               2               4               5               8
352.....................................             638          3.6160               1               2               3               4               7
353.....................................            2816          6.9457               3               4               5               8              12
354.....................................            9926          5.7743               3               3               4               6              10
355.....................................            5640          3.4624               2               3               3               4               5
356.....................................           28862          2.6478               1               2               2               3               4
357.....................................            6330          9.0289               3               5               7              11              17
358.....................................           27373          4.3708               2               3               3               5               7
359.....................................           27990          2.9775               2               2               3               3               4
360.....................................           17843          3.1581               1               2               3               4               5
361.....................................             540          3.3259               1               1               2               3               7
363.....................................            3943          3.3109               1               2               2               3               6
364.....................................            1828          3.5656               1               1               2               5               8
365.....................................            2298          6.8903               1               2               5               9              14
366.....................................            4368          6.8116               1               3               5               8              14
367.....................................             506          2.8893               1               1               2               3               6

[[Page 25676]]

                                                                                                                                                        
368.....................................            2895          6.3530               2               3               5               8              12
369.....................................            2588          3.0622               1               1               2               4               6
370.....................................            1154          5.4610               2               3               4               5               9
371.....................................            1157          3.4754               2               3               3               4               5
372.....................................             975          3.1549               1               2               2               3               5
373.....................................            3868          2.1171               1               1               2               2               3
374.....................................             147          3.0340               1               2               2               3               3
375.....................................               9          5.1111               2               2               3               9              10
376.....................................             214          2.9252               1               2               2               3               6
377.....................................              52          4.4808               1               2               3               6               9
378.....................................             168          2.5952               1               1               2               3               4
379.....................................             334          3.5868               1               1               2               3               7
380.....................................              87          2.0345               1               1               2               2               3
381.....................................             187          2.1283               1               1               1               2               4
382.....................................              40          1.2750               1               1               1               1               2
383.....................................            1460          3.7301               1               2               3               4               8
384.....................................             123          2.6585               1               1               2               3               6
385.....................................               1          2.0000               2               2               2               2               2
389.....................................               9          8.6667               1               3               7              10              15
390.....................................              13          6.0000               2               2               4               5              17
392.....................................            2513         10.3828               4               5               7              12              21
394.....................................            1805          7.0853               1               2               4               8              16
395.....................................           70948          4.7241               1               2               3               6               9
396.....................................              15         18.4667               1               2               5              11              15
397.....................................           18814          5.5200               1               2               4               7              11
398.....................................           18127          6.0414               2               3               5               7              11
399.....................................            1322          3.7239               1               2               3               5               7
400.....................................            7225          9.3664               2               3               6              12              20
401.....................................            6653         11.0137               2               4               8              14              23
402.....................................            1464          3.8907               1               1               3               5               9
403.....................................           38919          8.1409               2               3               6              10              17
404.....................................            3797          4.4464               1               2               3               6               9
406.....................................            3308          9.5299               2               4               7              12              20
407.....................................             634          4.3202               1               2               4               5               8
408.....................................            2667          7.5047               1               2               5               9              16
409.....................................            4644          5.8404               2               3               4               6              11
410.....................................           59252          3.4182               1               2               3               4               6
411.....................................              18          2.8889               1               1               2               2               6
412.....................................              24          2.3333               1               1               2               3               4
413.....................................            7781          7.4429               2               3               6               9              15
414.....................................             676          4.2219               1               2               3               5               8
415.....................................           45158         14.3432               4               7              11              18              28
416.....................................          230365          7.3967               2               4               6               9              14
417.....................................              41          5.9024               2               2               5               7              11
418.....................................           21184          6.1906               2               3               5               8              11
419.....................................           15269          5.0200               2               3               4               6               9
420.....................................            2680          3.9474               1               2               3               5               7
421.....................................           12113          3.9569               1               2               3               5               7
422.....................................              86          3.3372               1               2               2               5               7
423.....................................           10723          7.7520               2               3               6               9              15
424.....................................            1621         14.2961               2               5              10              18              29
425.....................................           15405          4.1352               1               2               3               5               8
426.....................................            4449          4.9020               1               2               3               6              10
427.....................................            1633          4.8010               1               2               3               6              10
428.....................................             940          7.1755               1               2               4               8              14
429.....................................           32769          7.1661               2               3               5               8              14
430.....................................           56829          8.7198               2               4               7              11              17
431.....................................             217          7.3088               1               3               5               9              13
432.....................................             409          5.2152               1               2               3               6              12
433.....................................            6811          3.2053               1               1               2               4               7
434.....................................           21537          5.1804               2               3               4               6               9
435.....................................           14552          4.4078               1               2               4               5               8
436.....................................            3322         13.9618               4               7              13              21              28
437.....................................           12779          9.2061               3               5               8              12              16
439.....................................            1138          7.7065               1               3               5               9              16
440.....................................            5155          8.9081               2               3               6              10              19
441.....................................             570          3.4333               1               1               2               4               7
442.....................................           16247          8.1177               1               3               6              10              17
443.....................................            3153          3.3321               1               1               2               4               7
444.....................................            3425          4.5007               1               2               3               5               8

[[Page 25677]]

                                                                                                                                                        
445.....................................            1243          3.3628               1               2               3               4               6
446.....................................               1          2.0000               2               2               2               2               2
447.....................................            4257          2.5130               1               1               2               3               5
449.....................................           27905          3.7822               1               1               3               5               8
450.....................................            6171          2.0826               1               1               1               2               4
451.....................................               9          2.7778               1               1               1               4               5
452.....................................           22863          5.0341               1               2               4               6              10
453.....................................            3796          2.9236               1               1               2               4               6
454.....................................            3855          4.6905               1               2               3               6               9
455.....................................             758          2.7401               1               1               2               3               5
461.....................................            3047          4.4322               1               1               2               4              11
462.....................................           10348         12.4504               4               6              10              16              23
463.....................................           13983          4.4209               1               2               3               5               8
464.....................................            3556          3.3751               1               2               3               4               6
465.....................................             210          2.9095               1               1               1               3               5
466.....................................            1748          4.0955               1               1               2               4               9
467.....................................            1332          4.3949               1               1               2               4               7
468.....................................           61704         13.4718               3               6              10              17              27
471.....................................           12918          6.0694               3               4               5               7              10
473.....................................            8429         12.7713               2               3               7              18              33
475.....................................          109339         11.1900               2               5               9              15              22
476.....................................            5924         11.9158               3               6              10              15              22
477.....................................           28747          8.1623               1               3               6              11              17
478.....................................          123286          7.4571               1               3               5               9              15
479.....................................           18337          3.8430               1               2               3               5               7
480.....................................             400         26.7550               8              11              20              32              53
481.....................................             256         27.1133              16              20              24              32              43
482.....................................            6596         12.7329               4               7              10              15              23
483.....................................           41763         40.0560              14              21              33              50              73
484.....................................             391         14.6931               2               6              11              18              27
485.....................................            3471          9.5906               4               5               7              11              18
486.....................................            2244         12.3382               1               5              10              16              25
487.....................................            4210          7.3983               2               3               6               9              14
488.....................................             865         17.0532               4               7              12              22              35
489.....................................           14894          8.9049               2               4               6              11              19
490.....................................            4863          5.4148               1               2               4               7              11
491.....................................           11011          3.6593               2               2               3               4               6
492.....................................            2334         17.1418               4               5              12              27              36
493.....................................           56210          5.6284               1               2               5               7              11
494.....................................           25155          2.4285               1               1               2               3               5
495.....................................             125         16.9920               7              10              13              19              31
496.....................................             895         10.5821               4               6               8              13              20
497.....................................           21969          6.2886               2               3               5               7              11
498.....................................           12500          3.5058               1               2               3               5               6
499.....................................           36205          4.9604               2               2               4               6               9
500.....................................           36448          2.8726               1               2               2               4               5
501.....................................            1895         10.4391               4               6               8              12              19
502.....................................             468          6.5876               3               4               6               8              10
503.....................................            6317          4.2169               1               2               3               5               8
504.....................................             157         31.5669               8              14              25              39              57
505.....................................             171          5.8421               1               1               1               4              11
506.....................................            1130         16.7522               4               8              13              21              34
507.....................................             391          8.9668               2               4               7              12              17
508.....................................            1206          7.7355               2               3               5               9              16
509.....................................             462          4.8528               1               2               3               6              10
510.....................................            1006          6.8897               2               3               5               8              13
511.....................................             311          4.8135               1               2               3               6               9
                                         ----------------                                                                                               
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[[Page 25678]]


 Table 8A.--Statewide Average Operating Cost-to-Charge Ratios For Urban 
             and Rural Hospitals (Case Weighted) March 1998             
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         State                           Urban    Rural 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALABAMA...............................................    0.373    0.446
ALASKA................................................    0.503    0.731
ARIZONA...............................................    0.375    0.540
ARKANSAS..............................................    0.515    0.457
CALIFORNIA............................................    0.363    0.481
COLORADO..............................................    0.467    0.565
CONNECTICUT...........................................    0.546    0.532
DELAWARE..............................................    0.506    0.488
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA..................................    0.521  .......
FLORIDA...............................................    0.384    0.389
GEORGIA...............................................    0.497    0.497
HAWAII................................................    0.430    0.559
IDAHO.................................................    0.564    0.582
ILLINOIS..............................................    0.445    0.546
INDIANA...............................................    0.559    0.597
IOWA..................................................    0.513    0.640
KANSAS................................................    0.429    0.644
KENTUCKY..............................................    0.496    0.519
LOUISIANA.............................................    0.442    0.496
MAINE.................................................    0.620    0.576
MARYLAND..............................................    0.765    0.818
MASSACHUSETTS.........................................    0.540    0.571
MICHIGAN..............................................    0.467    0.580
MINNESOTA.............................................    0.532    0.611
MISSISSIPPI...........................................    0.478    0.499
MISSOURI..............................................    0.441    0.516
MONTANA...............................................    0.524    0.569
NEBRASKA..............................................    0.482    0.639
NEVADA................................................    0.320    0.584
NEW HAMPSHIRE.........................................    0.573    0.586
NEW JERSEY............................................    0.436  .......
NEW MEXICO............................................    0.466    0.510
NEW YORK..............................................    0.553    0.633
NORTH CAROLINA........................................    0.523    0.461
NORTH DAKOTA..........................................    0.620    0.666
OHIO..................................................    0.533    0.576
OKLAHOMA..............................................    0.460    0.529
OREGON................................................    0.546    0.624
PENNSYLVANIA..........................................    0.407    0.527
PUERTO RICO...........................................    0.481    0.569
RHODE ISLAND..........................................    0.571  .......
SOUTH CAROLINA........................................    0.472    0.494
SOUTH DAKOTA..........................................    0.537    0.620
TENNESSEE.............................................    0.481    0.508
TEXAS.................................................    0.427    0.536
UTAH..................................................    0.538    0.635
VERMONT...............................................    0.615    0.577
VIRGINIA..............................................    0.476    0.499
WASHINGTON............................................    0.599    0.662
WEST VIRGINIA.........................................    0.592    0.573
WISCONSIN.............................................    0.568    0.641
WYOMING...............................................    0.495    0.694
------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Table 8B.--Statewide Average Capital Cost-to-Charge Ratios (Case    
                          Weighted) March 1998                          
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             State                                Ratio 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALABAMA........................................................    0.047
ALASKA.........................................................    0.066
ARIZONA........................................................    0.043
ARKANSAS.......................................................    0.054
CALIFORNIA.....................................................    0.038
COLORADO.......................................................    0.052
CONNECTICUT....................................................    0.042
DELAWARE.......................................................    0.058
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...........................................    0.040
FLORIDA........................................................    0.046
GEORGIA........................................................    0.049
HAWAII.........................................................    0.045
IDAHO..........................................................    0.054
ILLINOIS.......................................................    0.042
INDIANA........................................................    0.059
IOWA...........................................................    0.054
KANSAS.........................................................    0.052
KENTUCKY.......................................................    0.051
LOUISIANA......................................................    0.067
MAINE..........................................................    0.040
MARYLAND.......................................................    0.013
MASSACHUSETTS..................................................    0.056
MICHIGAN.......................................................    0.046
MINNESOTA......................................................    0.056
MISSISSIPPI....................................................    0.054
MISSOURI.......................................................    0.049
MONTANA........................................................    0.052
NEBRASKA.......................................................    0.057
NEVADA.........................................................    0.068
NEW HAMPSHIRE..................................................    0.066
NEW JERSEY.....................................................    0.039
NEW MEXICO.....................................................    0.047
NEW YORK.......................................................    0.053
NORTH CAROLINA.................................................    0.047
NORTH DAKOTA...................................................    0.075
OHIO...........................................................    0.053
OKLAHOMA.......................................................    0.054
OREGON.........................................................    0.055
PENNSYLVANIA...................................................    0.043
PUERTO RICO....................................................    0.054
RHODE ISLAND...................................................    0.033
SOUTH CAROLINA.................................................    0.053
SOUTH DAKOTA...................................................    0.061
TENNESSEE......................................................    0.056
TEXAS..........................................................    0.052
UTAH...........................................................    0.056
VERMONT........................................................    0.047
VIRGINIA.......................................................    0.058
WASHINGTON.....................................................    0.066
WEST VIRGINIA..................................................    0.056
WISCONSIN......................................................    0.052
WYOMING........................................................    0.056
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Appendix A--Regulatory Impact Analysis

I. Introduction

    We generally prepare a regulatory flexibility analysis that is 
consistent with the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) (5 U.S.C. 601 
through 612), unless we certify that a proposed rule would not have 
a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small 
entities. For purposes of the RFA, we consider all hospitals to be 
small entities.
    Also, section 1102(b) of the Social Security Act requires us to 
prepare a regulatory impact analysis for any proposed rule that may 
have a significant impact on the operations of a substantial number 
of small rural hospitals. Such an analysis must conform to the 
provisions of section 603 of the RFA. With the exception of 
hospitals located in certain New England counties, for purposes of 
section 1102(b) of the Act, we define a small rural hospital as a 
hospital with fewer than 100 beds that is located outside of a 
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) or New England County 
Metropolitan Area (NECMA). Section 601(g) of the Social Security 
Amendments of 1983 (Pub. L. 98-21) designated hospitals in certain 
New England counties as belonging to the adjacent NECMA. Thus, for 
purposes of the prospective payment system, we classify these 
hospitals as urban hospitals.
    It is clear that the changes being proposed in this document 
would affect both a substantial number of small rural hospitals as 
well as other classes of hospitals, and the effects on some may be 
significant. Therefore, the discussion below, in combination with 
the rest of this proposed rule, constitutes a combined regulatory 
impact analysis and regulatory flexibility analysis.
    In accordance with the provisions of Executive Order 12866, this 
proposed rule was reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget.

II. Objectives

    The primary objective of the prospective payment system is to 
create incentives for hospitals to operate efficiently and minimize 
unnecessary costs while at the same time ensuring that payments are 
sufficient to adequately compensate hospitals for their legitimate 
costs. In addition, we share national goals of deficit reduction and 
restraints on government spending in general.
    We believe the proposed changes would further each of these 
goals while maintaining the financial viability of the hospital 
industry and ensuring access to high quality health care for 
Medicare beneficiaries. We expect that these proposed changes would 
ensure that the outcomes of this payment system are reasonable and 
equitable while avoiding or minimizing unintended adverse 
consequences.

III. Limitations of Our Analysis

    As has been the case in previously published regulatory impact 
analyses, the following quantitative analysis presents the projected 
effects of our proposed policy changes, as well as statutory changes 
effective for FY 1999, on various hospital groups. We estimate the 
effects of individual policy changes by estimating payments per case 
while holding all other payment policies constant. We use the best 
data available, but we do not attempt to predict behavioral 
responses to our policy changes, and we do not make adjustments for 
future changes in such variables as admissions, lengths of stay, or 
case mix. As we have done in previous proposed rules, we are 
soliciting comments and information about the anticipated effects of 
these changes on hospitals and our methodology for estimating them.

IV. GME Payment to Nonhospital Providers

    In the past, Medicare only paid hospitals for GME costs. 
Therefore, FQHCs, RHCs and Medicare+Choice organizations may have 
been reluctant to train many residents since they would incur costs 
in training the residents but would not be reimbursed for those 
costs by Medicare. Under this proposed regulation, where the non-
hospital site incurs all or substantially all of the costs of the 
training at that site, Medicare will reimburse

[[Page 25679]]

the provider for Medicare's share of the reasonable costs of the 
training. The proposal to allow for payments directly to these non-
hospital sites for the costs of training residents in approved 
programs will facilitate more training of residents in settings that 
will be similar to the settings that many of those residents will 
ultimately practice after their training is completed. Additionally, 
this could result in an increase in the number of physicians 
practicing in underserved areas.
    In addition, hospitals are currently allowed to count residents, 
working in nonhospital sites in their count of residents and the 
hospital would be paid GME payments, if it paid for all or 
substantially all of the costs of the program at the non-hospital 
site. Previously the regulation defined the statutory requirement of 
"all or substantially all" to mean at least the residents" 
salaries and fringe benefits. Under the proposal we would redefine 
"all or substantially all" of the costs of the program at the 
nonhospital site to also include the GME portion of the teaching 
physicians' salaries and fringe benefits. This will require 
hospitals to incur more of the costs of the training at the 
nonhospital site in order to receive both direct and indirect GME 
payments for those residents.
    Section 4625 of the Balanced Budget Act, which provides for 
direct graduate medical education payments to nonhospital providers, 
would have minimal impact in the context of total graduate medical 
education costs. We believe that the most significant impact 
resulting from section 4625 will be the movement of resident 
training from the inpatient setting to the nonhospital setting. We 
expect that such a shift in the site where resident training occurs 
will result in little if any additional cost to Medicare. In 
addition to the expected shift in training from the inpatient 
setting to the nonhospital setting, in relatively few cases, section 
4625 could result in additional resident training being paid by 
Medicare. However, Medicare's share of costs incurred in those 
nonhospital sites based on Medicare utilization is often generally 
low, so we expect the impact of the cost of training of any 
additional residents to be negliglible.

V. Hospitals Included In and Excluded From the Prospective Payment 
System

    The prospective payment systems for hospital inpatient operating 
and capital-related costs encompass nearly all general, short-term, 
acute care hospitals that participate in the Medicare program. There 
were 45 Indian Health Service hospitals in our database, which we 
excluded from the analysis due to the special characteristics of the 
prospective payment method for these hospitals. Among other short-
term, acute care hospitals, only the 50 such hospitals in Maryland 
remain excluded from the prospective payment system under the waiver 
at section 1814(b)(3) of the Act. Thus, as of March 1998, we have 
included 4,956 hospitals in our analysis. This represents about 82 
percent of all Medicare-participating hospitals. The majority of 
this impact analysis focuses on this set of hospitals.
    The remaining 18 percent are specialty hospitals that are 
excluded from the prospective payment system and continue to be paid 
on the basis of their reasonable costs (subject to a rate-of-
increase ceiling on their inpatient operating costs per discharge). 
These hospitals include psychiatric, rehabilitation, long-term care, 
children's, and cancer hospitals. The impacts of our proposed policy 
changes on these hospitals are discussed below.


VI. Impact on Excluded Hospitals and Units

    As of March 1998, there were 1,082 specialty hospitals excluded 
from the prospective payment system and instead paid on a reasonable 
cost basis subject to the rate-of-increase ceiling under 
Sec. 413.40. In addition, there were 2,393 psychiatric and 
rehabilitation units in hospitals otherwise subject to the 
prospective payment system. These excluded units are also paid in 
accordance with Sec. 413.40.
    As required by section 1886(b)(3)(B) of the Act, the update 
factor applicable to the rate-of-increase limit for excluded 
hospitals and units for FY 1999 would be between 0 and 2.5 percent, 
depending on the hospital's costs in relation to its limit.
    The impact on excluded hospitals and units of the proposed 
update in the rate-of-increase limit depends on the cumulative cost 
increases experienced by each excluded hospital or unit since its 
applicable base period. For excluded hospitals and units that have 
maintained their cost increases at a level below the percentage 
increases in the rate-of-increase limits since their base period, 
the major effect will be on the level of incentive payments these 
hospitals and units receive. Conversely, for excluded hospitals and 
units with per-case cost increases above the cumulative update in 
their rate-of-increase limits, the major effect will be the amount 
of excess costs that would not be reimbursed.
    We note that, under Sec. 413.40(d)(3), an excluded hospital or 
unit whose costs exceed 110 percent of its rate-of-increase limit 
receives its rate-of-increase limit plus 50 percent of the 
difference between its reasonable costs and 110 percent of the 
limit, not to exceed 110 percent of its limit. In addition, under 
the various provisions set forth in Sec. 413.40, certain excluded 
hospitals and units can obtain payment adjustments for justifiable 
increases in operating costs that exceed the limit. At the same 
time, however, by generally limiting payment increases, we continue 
to provide an incentive for excluded hospitals and units to restrain 
the growth in their spending for patient services.

VII. Quantitative Impact Analysis of the Proposed Policy Changes 
Under the Prospective Payment System for Operating Costs

A. Basis and Methodology of Estimates

    In this proposed rule, we are announcing policy changes and 
payment rate updates for the prospective payment systems for 
operating and capital-related costs. We estimate the total payment 
impact of these changes on FY 1999 payments compared to FY 1998 
payments, to be approximately a $400 million reduction. We have 
prepared separate impact analyses of the proposed changes to each 
system. This section deals with changes to the operating prospective 
payment system.
    The data used in developing the quantitative analyses presented 
below are taken from the FY 1997 MedPAR file and the most current 
provider-specific file that is used for payment purposes. Although 
the analyses of the changes to the operating prospective payment 
system do not incorporate cost data, the most recently available 
hospital cost report data were used to categorize hospitals. Our 
analysis has several qualifications. First, we do not make 
adjustments for behavioral changes that hospitals may adopt in 
response to these proposed policy changes. Second, due to the 
interdependent nature of the prospective payment system, it is very 
difficult to precisely quantify the impact associated with each 
proposed change. Third, we draw upon various sources for the data 
used to categorize hospitals in the tables. In some cases, 
particularly the number of beds, there is a fair degree of variation 
in the data from different sources. We have attempted to construct 
these variables with the best available source overall. For 
individual hospitals, however, some miscategorizations are possible.
    Using cases in the FY 1997 MedPAR file, we simulated payments 
under the operating prospective payment system given various 
combinations of payment parameters. Any short-term, acute care 
hospitals not paid under the general prospective payment systems 
(Indian Health Service hospitals and hospitals in Maryland) are 
excluded from the simulations. Payments under the capital 
prospective payment system, or payments for costs other than 
inpatient operating costs, are not analyzed here. Estimated payment 
impacts of proposed FY 1999 changes to the capital prospective 
payment system are discussed below in section VII of this Appendix.
    The proposed changes discussed separately below are the 
following:
    --- The effects of implementing the expanded transfer 
definition enacted by section 4407 of the BBA, which counts as a 
transfer any discharge from one of 10 DRGs if upon discharge the 
patient is admitted to an excluded hospital or distinct part unit or 
a skilled nursing facility, or is provided home health care that is 
related to the hospitalization within 3 days of the date of 
discharge.
    --- The effects of the annual reclassification of diagnoses 
and procedures and the recalibration of the DRG relative weights 
required by section 1886(d)(4)(C) of the Act.
    --- The effects of changes in hospitals' wage index values 
reflecting the wage index update (FY 1995 data).
    --- The effects of two proposed changes to the wage index: 
(1) including the costs associated with Part A physician costs under 
contract; and (2) removing the overhead costs related to departments 
excluded from the wage data used to calculate the wage index (for 
example, skilled nursing facilities and distinct part units).
    --- The effects of geographic reclassifications by the 
Medicare Geographic Classification Review Board (MGCRB) that will be 
effective in FY 1999.

[[Page 25680]]

    --- The total change in payments based on FY 1999 policies 
relative to payments based on FY 1998 policies.
    To illustrate the impacts of the FY 1999 proposed changes, our 
analysis begins with a FY 1999 baseline simulation model using: The 
FY 1998 GROUPER (version 15.0); the FY 1998 wage index; the transfer 
definition prior to implementation of section 4407 of the BBA; and 
no MGCRB reclassifications. Outlier payments are set at 5.1 percent 
of total DRG payments.
    Each proposed and statutory policy change is then added 
incrementally to this baseline model, finally arriving at an FY 1999 
model incorporating all of the changes. This allows us to isolate 
the effects of each change.
    Our final comparison illustrates the percent change in payments 
per case from FY 1998 to FY 1999. Four factors have significant 
impacts here. First is the update to the standardized amounts. In 
accordance with section 1886(d)(3)(A)(iv) of the Act, we are 
proposing to update the large urban and the other areas average 
standardized amounts for FY 1999 using the most recently forecasted 
hospital market basket increase for FY 1999 of 2.6 percent minus 1.9 
percentage points. Similarly, section 1886(b)(3)(C)(ii) of the Act 
provides that the update factor applicable to the hospital-specific 
rates for sole community hospitals (SCHs), essential access 
community hospitals (EACHs) (which are treated as SCHs for payment 
purposes), and Medicare-dependent, small rural hospitals (MDHs) is 
equal to the market basket increase of 2.6 percent minus 1.9 
percentage points (for an update of 0.7 percent).
    A second significant factor impacting changes in hospitals' 
payments per case from FY 1998 to FY 1999 is a change in MGCRB 
reclassification status from one year to the next. That is, 
hospitals reclassified in FY 1998 that are no longer reclassified in 
FY 1999 may have a negative payment impact going from FY 1998 to FY 
1999; conversely, hospitals not reclassified in FY 1998 that are 
reclassified in FY 1999 may have a positive impact. In some cases, 
these impacts can be quite substantial, so if a relatively small 
number of hospitals in a particular category lose their 
reclassification status, the percentage increase in payments for the 
category may be below the national mean.
    A third significant factor is that we currently estimate that 
actual outlier payments during FY 1998 will be 5.4 percent of actual 
total DRG payments. When the FY 1998 final rule was published, we 
projected FY 1998 outlier payments would be 5.1 percent of total DRG 
payments, and the standardized amounts were reduced correspondingly. 
The effects of the slightly higher than expected outlier payments 
during FY 1998 (as discussed in the Addendum to this proposed rule) 
are reflected in the analyses below comparing our current estimates 
of FY 1998 payments per case to estimated FY 1999 payments per case.
    Fourth, payments per case in FY 1999 are reduced from FY 1998 
for hospitals that receive the indirect medical education (IME) or 
the disproportionate share (DSH) adjustments. Section 
1886(d)(5)(B)(ii) of the Act provides that the IME adjustment is 
reduced from approximately a 7.0 percent increase for every 10 
percent increase in a hospital's resident-to-bed ratio in FY 1998, 
to a 6.5 percent increase in FY 1999. Similarly, in accordance with 
section 1886(d)(5)(F)(ix) of the Act, the DSH adjustment for FY 1999 
is reduced by 2 percent from what would otherwise have been paid, 
compared to a 1 percent reduction for FY 1998.
    Table I demonstrates the results of our analysis. The table 
categorizes hospitals by various geographic and special payment 
consideration groups to illustrate the varying impacts on different 
types of hospitals. The top row of the table shows the overall 
impact on the 4,956 hospitals included in the analysis. This is 132 
fewer hospitals than were included in the impact analysis in the FY 
1998 final rule with comment period (62 FR 46119).
    The next four rows of Table I contain hospitals categorized 
according to their geographic location (all urban, which is further 
divided into large urban and other urban, or rural). There are 2,792 
hospitals located in urban areas (MSAs or NECMAs) included in our 
analysis. Among these, there are 1,588 hospitals located in large 
urban areas (populations over 1 million), and 1,204 hospitals in 
other urban areas (populations of 1 million or fewer). In addition, 
there are 2,164 hospitals in rural areas. The next two groupings are 
by bed-size categories, shown separately for urban and rural 
hospitals. The final groupings by geographic location are by census 
divisions, also shown separately for urban and rural hospitals.
    The second part of Table I shows hospital groups based on 
hospitals' FY 1999 payment classifications, including any 
reclassifications under section 1886(d)(10) of the Act. For example, 
the rows labeled urban, large urban, other urban, and rural show the 
numbers of hospitals paid based on these categorizations (after 
consideration of geographic reclassifications) are 2,877, 1,681, 
1,196, and 2,079, respectively.
    The next three groupings examine the impacts of the proposed 
changes on hospitals grouped by whether or not they have residency 
programs (teaching hospitals that receive an IME adjustment), 
receive DSH payments, or some combination of these two adjustments. 
There are 3,875 nonteaching hospitals in our analysis, 841 teaching 
hospitals with fewer than 100 residents, and 240 teaching hospitals 
with 100 or more residents.
    In the DSH categories, hospitals are grouped according to their 
DSH payment status, and whether they are considered urban or rural 
after MGCRB reclassifications. Hospitals in the rural DSH 
categories, therefore, represent hospitals that were not 
reclassified for purposes of the standardized amount or for purposes 
of the DSH adjustment. (They may, however, have been reclassified 
for purposes of the wage index.) The next category groups hospitals 
considered urban after geographic reclassification, in terms of 
whether they receive the IME adjustment, the DSH adjustment, both, 
or neither.
    The next row separately examines hospitals that available data 
show may qualify under section 4401(b) of the BBA for the special 
temporary relief provision, which grants an additional 0.3 percent 
update to the standardized amounts (in addition to the 0.7 percent 
update other hospitals would receive during FY 1999), resulting in a 
1.0 percent update for this category of hospitals. To be eligible, a 
hospital must not be an MDH, nor may it receive either IME or DSH 
payments. It must also experience a negative margin on its operating 
prospective payments during FY 1999. We estimated eligible hospitals 
based on whether they had a negative operating margin on their FY 
1995 cost report (latest available data). Finally, to qualify, a 
hospital must be located in a State where the aggregate FY 1995 
operating prospective payments were less than the aggregate 
associated costs for all of the non-IME, non-DSH, non-MDH hospitals 
in the State. There are 356 hospitals in this row.
    The next four rows examine the impacts of the proposed changes 
on rural hospitals by special payment groups (SCHs, rural referral 
centers (RRCs), MDHs, and EACHs), as well as rural hospitals not 
receiving a special payment designation. The RRCs (137), SCH/EACHs 
(633), MDHs (351), and SCH/EACH and RRCs (54) shown here were not 
reclassified for purposes of the standardized amount. There is one 
SCH that will be reclassified for the standardized amount in FY 1999 
that, therefore, is not included in these rows. There are six EACHs 
included in our analysis and three EACH/RRCs.
    The next two groupings are based on type of ownership and the 
hospital's Medicare utilization expressed as a percent of total 
patient days. These data are taken primarily from the FY 1995 
Medicare cost report files, if available (otherwise FY 1994 data are 
used). Data needed to determine ownership status or Medicare 
utilization percentages were unavailable for 95 hospitals. For the 
most part, these are new hospitals.
    The next series of groupings concern the geographic 
reclassification status of hospitals. The first three groupings 
display hospitals that were reclassified by the MGCRB for both FY 
1998 and FY 1999, or for either of those 2 years, by urban/rural 
status. The next rows illustrate the overall number of FY 1999 
reclassifications, as well as the numbers of reclassified hospitals 
grouped by urban and rural location. The final row in Table I 
contains hospitals located in rural counties but deemed to be urban 
under section 1886(d)(8)(B) of the Act.

[[Page 25681]]



                                  Table I.--Impact Analysis of Changes for FY 1999 Operating Prospective Payment System                                 
                                                         [Percent changes in payments per case]                                                         
                                                                                                                                                        
                                                           PAC tran.                           Contract    Allocated              MGCRB recl-           
                                               Number of     prov-      DRG re-    New wage   phys. pt a   overhead    DRG & WI     assifi-    All FY 99
                                               hosps.\1\   ision \2\  calib. \3\   data \4\    costs \5\   costs \6\    changes   cation \8\    changes 
                                                     (0)         (1)         (2)         (3)         (4)         (5)         (6)         (7)         (8)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION):                                                                                                                               
    ALL HOSPITALS...........................       4,956        -0.6         0.1         0.1         0.0        -0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.7
    URBAN HOSPITALS.........................       2,792        -0.7         0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.2        -0.2        -0.4        -1.1
        LARGE URBAN.........................       1,588        -0.7         0.1        -0.3         0.0        -0.2        -0.5        -0.4        -1.4
        OTHER URBAN.........................       1,204        -0.6         0.1         0.4         0.0        -0.2         0.2        -0.3        -0.5
    RURAL HOSPITALS.........................       2,164        -0.4         0.1         0.9        -0.1         0.3         1.3         2.4         1.5
    BED SIZE (URBAN):                                                                                                                                   
        0-99 BEDS...........................         690        -0.8         0.2        -0.3         0.0        -0.1        -0.3        -0.5        -0.7
        100-199 BEDS........................         936        -0.8         0.2        -0.2         0.0        -0.1        -0.3        -0.4        -1.0
        200-299 BEDS........................         566        -0.7         0.1        -0.1         0.0        -0.1        -0.3        -0.3        -0.9
        300-499 BEDS........................         448        -0.6         0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.2        -0.3        -0.5        -1.2
        500 OR MORE BEDS....................         152        -0.5         0.1         0.3         0.0        -0.3         0.1        -0.2        -1.2
    BED SIZE (RURAL):                                                                                                                                   
        0-49 BEDS...........................       1,135        -0.3         0.1         0.9        -0.1         0.5         1.3        -0.1         1.3
        50-99 BEDS..........................         635        -0.4         0.1         0.8        -0.1         0.3         1.1         0.9         1.1
        100-149 BEDS........................         229        -0.5         0.1         0.8        -0.1         0.4         1.3         3.3         1.3
        150-199 BEDS........................          91        -0.5         0.1         1.0        -0.1         0.3         1.5         3.9         2.7
        200 OR MORE BEDS....................          74        -0.4         0.1         1.0         0.0         0.2         1.4         4.6         1.6
    URBAN BY CENSUS DIVISION:                                                                                                                           
        NEW ENGLAND.........................         152        -0.7         0.1        -2.4        -0.1         0.1        -2.7         0.1        -3.5
        MIDDLE ATLANTIC.....................         425        -0.4         0.2         0.4         0.3        -0.2         0.6        -0.5        -0.5
        SOUTH ATLANTIC......................         413        -0.6         0.1         0.8        -0.1        -0.2         0.6        -0.6        -0.3
        EAST NORTH CENTRAL..................         475        -0.8         0.1         0.0        -0.1        -0.4        -0.6        -0.3        -1.5
        EAST SOUTH CENTRAL..................         159        -0.6         0.1         0.5        -0.1        -0.4         0.0        -0.5        -0.7
        WEST NORTH CENTRAL..................         186        -0.7         0.0         0.9         0.0         0.1         1.0        -0.6         0.1
        WEST SOUTH CENTRAL..................         350        -0.9         0.1        -1.1         0.1        -0.2        -1.4        -0.1        -2.0
        MOUNTAIN............................         126        -0.8         0.1         0.4         0.2        -0.2         0.5        -0.6        -0.3
        PACIFIC.............................         458        -0.8         0.1        -0.5        -0.1         0.0        -0.7        -0.3        -1.4
        PUERTO RICO.........................          48        -0.2         0.3         0.8        -0.3        -0.3         0.3        -0.5         0.3
    RURAL BY CENSUS DIVISION:                                                                                                                           
        NEW ENGLAND.........................          53        -0.4         0.0         1.3         0.1         0.0         1.4         0.6        -0.4
        MIDDLE ATLANTIC.....................          80        -0.3         0.1         0.9         0.1         0.0         1.2         1.2         1.1
        SOUTH ATLANTIC......................         286        -0.4         0.2         0.8        -0.1         0.3         1.1         3.3         2.0
        EAST NORTH CENTRAL..................         284        -0.5         0.1         1.0        -0.3         0.3         1.2         1.9         1.5
        EAST SOUTH CENTRAL..................         269        -0.4         0.1         1.5        -0.1         0.3         1.9         2.5         2.0

[[Page 25682]]

                                                                                                                                                        
        WEST NORTH CENTRAL..................         499        -0.4         0.0         1.1         0.0         0.7         1.9         2.1         1.8
        WEST SOUTH CENTRAL..................         341        -0.5         0.1         0.3        -0.1         0.5         0.8         3.1         0.7
        MOUNTAIN............................         206        -0.3         0.0         0.3        -0.1         0.5         0.8         1.6         1.2
        PACIFIC.............................         141        -0.6         0.1         0.4        -0.1         0.4         1.0         2.3         1.1
        PUERTO RICO.........................           5        -0.4         0.1         2.3         0.1        -0.3         2.2         1.9         0.8
(BY PAYMENT CATEGORIES):                                                                                                                                
    URBAN HOSPITALS.........................       2,877        -0.7         0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.2        -0.2        -0.3        -1.0
        LARGE URBAN.........................       1,681        -0.7         0.1        -0.3         0.0        -0.2        -0.4        -0.3        -1.3
        OTHER URBAN.........................       1,196        -0.6         0.1         0.4         0.0        -0.2         0.2        -0.4        -0.5
    RURAL HOSPITALS.........................       2,079        -0.4         0.1         0.9        -0.1         0.4         1.3         2.0         1.4
    TEACHING STATUS:                                                                                                                                    
        NON-TEACHING........................       3,875        -0.7         0.1         0.2        -0.1         0.0         0.2         0.3        -0.1
        LESS THAN 100 RES...................         841        -0.7         0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.2        -0.2        -0.3        -0.9
        100+ RESIDENTS......................         240        -0.6         0.1         0.0         0.1        -0.2        -0.1        -0.3        -1.7
    DISPROPORTIONATE SHARE HOSPITALS (DSH):                                                                                                             
        NON-DSH.............................       3,074        -0.6         0.1         0.1         0.0        -0.1         0.1         0.3        -0.4
        URBAN DSH:                                                                                                                                      
            100 BEDS OR MORE................       1,402        -0.7         0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.2        -0.2        -0.3        -1.1
            FEWER THAN 100 BEDS.............          93        -0.7         0.2        -0.2        -0.1        -0.1        -0.3        -0.5        -0.7
        RURAL DSH:                                                                                                                                      
            SOLE COMMUNITY (SCH)............         156        -0.2         0.1         0.8        -0.1         0.2         1.1        -0.1         1.3
            REFERRAL CENTERS (RRC)..........          47        -0.5         0.2         1.3        -0.1         0.3         1.9         4.8         2.9
        OTHER RURAL DSH HOSP.:                                                                                                                          
            100 BEDS OR MORE................          64        -0.6         0.2         1.2        -0.1         0.4         1.8         1.3         0.8
            FEWER THAN 100 BEDS.............         120        -0.3         0.1         1.4        -0.1         0.4         1.8         0.0         1.7
    URBAN TEACHING AND DSH:                                                                                                                             

[[Page 25683]]

                                                                                                                                                        
        BOTH TEACHING AND DSH...............         700        -0.7         0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.2        -0.2        -0.4        -1.4
        TEACHING AND NO DSH.................         328        -0.6         0.0         0.0         0.0        -0.3        -0.2        -0.1        -1.0
        NO TEACHING AND DSH.................         795        -0.8         0.2         0.0        -0.1        -0.1        -0.1        -0.2        -0.6
        NO TEACHING AND NO DSH..............       1,054        -0.7         0.1        -0.2         0.0        -0.1        -0.3        -0.3        -0.6
    SPECIAL UPDATE HOSPITALS (UNDER SEC.                                                                                                                
     4401(b) OF PUBLIC LAW 105-33)..........         356        -0.6         0.2         0.1        -0.1        -0.1         0.1         0.3        -0.3
    RURAL HOSPITAL TYPES:                                                                                                                               
        NONSPECIAL STATUS HOSPITALS.........         904        -0.5         0.2         1.1        -0.1         0.5         1.6         1.1         1.0
        RRC.................................         137        -0.6         0.1         1.2         0.0         0.4         1.8         5.6         2.5
        SCH/EACH............................         633        -0.2         0.0         0.4         0.0         0.2         0.6         0.1         0.8
        MDH.................................         351        -0.3         0.1         1.1        -0.1         0.5         1.5         0.4         1.3
        SCH/EACH AND RRC....................          54        -0.2         0.0         0.3         0.0         0.1         0.4         1.5         1.3
    TYPE OF OWNERSHIP:                                                                                                                                  
        VOLUNTARY...........................       2,859        -0.6         0.1         0.1         0.0        -0.1        -0.1        -0.1        -0.8
        PROPRIETARY.........................         671        -0.9         0.2         0.1        -0.1        -0.1        -0.1         0.1        -0.9
        GOVERNMENT..........................       1,331        -0.5         0.1         0.3        -0.1         0.0         0.3         0.3        -0.3
        UNKNOWN.............................          95        -0.7         0.2         0.3        -0.1        -0.1         0.2        -0.2        -0.7
    MEDICARE UTILIZATION AS A PERCENT OF                                                                                                                
     INPATIENT DAYS:                                                                                                                                    
        0-25................................         249        -0.7         0.2        -0.7        -0.1        -0.1        -1.0         0.1        -1.6
        25-50...............................       1,267        -0.7         0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.1        -0.2        -0.2        -1.2
        50-65...............................       1,975        -0.6         0.1         0.2         0.0        -0.1         0.1         0.1        -0.4
        OVER 65.............................       1,370        -0.6         0.1         0.3         0.0         0.0         0.4         0.0         0.0
        UNKNOWN.............................          95        -0.7         0.2         0.3        -0.1        -0.1         0.2        -0.2        -0.7
HOSPITALS RECLASSIFIED BY THE MEDICARE                                                                                                                  
 GEOGRAPHIC REVIEW BOARD:                                                                                                                               
    RECLASSIFICATION STATUS DURING FY 98 AND                                                                                                            
     FY 99:                                                                                                                                             
        RECLASSIFIED DURING BOTH FY98 AND                                                                                                               
         FY99...............................         311        -0.5         0.1         0.6        -0.1         0.1         0.8         6.6        -0.1
            URBAN...........................          70        -0.5         0.1         0.2        -0.1        -0.3        -0.1         5.4        -0.5
            RURAL...........................         241        -0.5         0.1         1.0        -0.1         0.4         1.5         7.5         0.2
        RECLASSIFIED DURING FY99 ONLY.......         178        -0.5         0.1         0.8        -0.1         0.2         1.0         4.0         4.7

[[Page 25684]]

                                                                                                                                                        
            URBAN...........................          25        -0.5         0.1         0.4        -0.1         0.0         0.4         3.1         1.9
            RURAL...........................         153        -0.5         0.1         1.0        -0.1         0.3         1.3         4.4         6.1
        RECLASSIFIED DURING FY98 ONLY.......         111        -0.7         0.1         0.6         0.0        -0.2         0.5        -0.5        -3.1
            URBAN...........................          38        -0.7         0.1         0.5         0.1        -0.3         0.2        -0.6        -2.2
            RURAL...........................          73        -0.4         0.1         0.9        -0.1         0.4         1.3        -0.5        -6.1
    FY 99 RECLASSIFICATIONS:                                                                                                                            
        ALL RECLASSIFIED HOSP...............         489        -0.5         0.1         0.7        -0.1         0.1         0.9         5.7         1.6
            STAND. AMOUNT ONLY..............          94        -0.6         0.1         0.6         0.1        -0.3         0.5         1.0        -0.3
            WAGE INDEX ONLY.................         281        -0.5         0.1         0.5        -0.1         0.3         0.8         6.6        -0.9
            BOTH............................          47        -0.6         0.2         0.9        -0.1        -0.4         0.6         3.8        -1.6
            NONRECLASSIFIED.................       4,507        -0.7         0.1         0.1         0.0        -0.1        -0.1        -0.4        -0.7
        ALL URBAN RECLASS...................          95        -0.5         0.1         0.3        -0.1        -0.2         0.0         4.7         0.2
            STAND. AMOUNT ONLY..............          25        -0.4         0.2         0.9         0.1        -0.4         0.7         0.7         0.0
            WAGE INDEX ONLY.................          45        -0.5         0.1         0.0        -0.1         0.1        -0.1         6.5         0.6
            BOTH............................          25        -0.5         0.1         0.6        -0.2        -0.6        -0.1         2.9        -0.5
            NONRECLASSIFIED.................       2,670        -0.7         0.1         0.0         0.0        -0.2        -0.2        -0.6        -1.1
        ALL RURAL RECLASS...................         394        -0.5         0.1         1.0        -0.1         0.4         1.4         6.3         2.5
            STAND. AMOUNT ONLY..............          57        -0.5         0.1         1.1        -0.2         0.3         1.5         5.1         2.4
            WAGE INDEX ONLY.................         309        -0.5         0.1         0.9        -0.1         0.4         1.4         6.1         2.3
            BOTH............................          28        -0.6         0.1         1.1        -0.1         0.3         1.6         9.2         3.8
            NONRECLASSIFIED.................       1,770        -0.3         0.1         0.9        -0.1         0.3         1.2        -0.5         0.8
    OTHER RECLASSIFIED HOSPITALS (SECTION                                                                                                               
     1886(d)(8)(B)).........................          27        -0.5         0.1        -0.9         0.2        -0.3        -0.9         0.7        -0.6
                                              ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........  ..........
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Because data necessary to classify some hospitals by category were missing, the total number of hospitals in each category may not equal the        
  national total. Discharge data are from FY 1997, and hospital cost report data are from reporting periods beginning in FY 1994 and FY 1995.           
\2\ This column displays the impact of the change enacted by section 4407 of the BBA, which defines discharges from 1 of 10 DRGs to postacute care as   
  transfers. Under our proposed policy, 3 of the 10 DRGs would be paid under an alternative methodology where they would receive 50 percent of the full 
  DRG amount on the first day and 50 percent of the current per diem transfer payment amount for each remaining day of the stay. The remaining seven    
  DRGs would be paid using our current transfer payment methodology.                                                                                    
\3\ This column displays the payment impact of the recalibration of the DRG weights based on FY 1997 MedPAR data and the DRG classification changes, in 
  accordance with section 1886(d)(4)(C) of the Act.                                                                                                     

[[Page 25685]]

                                                                                                                                                        
\4\ This column shows the payment effects of updating the data used to calculate the wage index with data from the FY 1995 cost reports.                
\5\ This column displays the impact of adding contract Part A physician costs to the wage data.                                                         
\6\ This column illustrates the payment impact of removing the overhead costs allocated to departments where the directly assigned costs are already    
  excluded from the wage index calculation (for example, SNFs and distinct part units).                                                                 
\7\ This column displays the combined impact of the reclassification and recalibration of the DRGs, the updated and revised wage data used to calculate 
  the wage index, and the budget neutrality adjustment factor for these two changes, in accordance with sections 1886(d)(4)(C)(iii) and 1886(d)(3)(E) of
  the Act. Thus, it represents the combined impacts shown in columns 2, 3, 4, and 5, and the FY 1999 budget neutrality factor of 0.999227.              
\8\ Shown here are the effects of geographic reclassifications by the Medicare Geographic Classification Review Board (MGCRB). The effects shown here   
  demonstrate the FY 1999 payment impact of going from no reclassifications to the reclassifications scheduled to be in effect for FY 1999.             
  Reclassification for prior years has no bearing on the payment impacts shown here.                                                                    
\9\ This column shows changes in payments from FY 1998 to FY 1999. It incorporates all of the changes displayed in columns 1, 6, and 7 (the changes     
  displayed in columns 2, 3, 4 and 5 are included in column 6). It also displays the impact of the FY 1999 update, changes in hospitals'                
  reclassification status in FY 1999 compared to FY 1998, the difference in outlier payments from FY 1998 to FY 1999, and the reductions to payments    
  through the IME and DSH adjustments taking effect during FY 1999. The sum of these columns may be different from the percentage changes shown here due
  to rounding and interactive effects.                                                                                                                  

B. Impact of the Proposed Implementation of the Expanded Transfer 
Definition (Column 1)

    Section 1886(d)(5)(J) of the Act (added by section 4407 of the 
BBA) requires the Secretary to select 10 DRGs for which discharges 
(from any one of these DRGs) to a postacute care provider will be 
treated as a transfer beginning with discharges on or after October 
1, 1998. Column 1 shows the impact of this provision.
    Although the expanded definition encompasses only 10 DRGs, they 
were selected, in accordance with the statute, based upon their 
large and disproportionate volume of cases receiving postacute care. 
We estimate that approximately 25 percent of all cases receiving 
follow-up postacute care come from these 10 DRGs. Therefore, the 
overall payment impact of this change is significant (a 0.6 percent 
decrease in payments per case).
    The 10 DRGs that we are proposing to include under this 
provision are identified in section V.A. of the preamble to this 
proposed rule. In addition to selecting 10 DRGs, the statute 
authorizes the Secretary to develop an alternative transfer payment 
methodology for DRGs where a substantial portion of the costs of the 
cases occur very early in the stay. This is particularly likely to 
happen in some surgical DRGs because of the high cost of the 
surgical procedure. Based on our analysis comparing the costs per 
case for these cases with payments under our current transfer 
payment methodology, we are proposing to pay the current transfer 
per diem for all DRGs except DRGs 209, 210, and 211. For those three 
DRGs, the alternative payment methodology we are proposing is 50 
percent of the full DRG payment amount for the first day of the 
stay, plus 50 percent of the current per diem transfer payment for 
each remaining day, up to the full DRG payment.
    To simulate the impact of these proposed policies, we adjusted 
hospitals' transfer-adjusted discharges and case-mix index values 
(using version 15 of the GROUPER) to reflect the impact of this 
expansion in the transfer definition. The transfer-adjusted 
discharge amount is calculated one of two ways, depending on the 
transfer payment methodology. Under our current transfer payment 
methodology, and for all but the three DRGs receiving special 
payment consideration, this adjustment is made simply by adding one 
to the length of stay and dividing that amount by the geometric mean 
length of stay for the DRG (not to exceed 1.0). For example, a 
transfer after 3 days from a DRG with a geometric mean length of 
stay of 6 days would have a transfer-adjusted discharge weight of 
0.667 ((3+1)/6).
    For transfers from any one of the three DRGs receiving the 
alternative payment methodology, the transfer-adjusted discharge 
amount is 0.5 (to reflect that these cases receive half the full DRG 
amount the first day), plus one-half of the result of dividing one 
plus the length of stay prior to transfer by the geometric mean 
length of stay for the DRG. As with the above adjustment, the result 
is equal to the lesser of the transfer-adjusted DRG or 1.
    The transfer-adjusted case-mix index values are calculated by 
summing the transfer-adjusted DRG weights and dividing by the 
transfer-adjusted discharges. The transfer-adjusted DRG weights are 
calculated by multiplying the DRG weight by the lesser of 1 or the 
transfer-adjusted discharge for the case, divided by the geometric 
mean length of stay for the DRG. In this way, simulated payments per 
case can be compared before and after the change to the transfer 
policy.
    This change has the greatest impact among urban hospitals (0.7 
percent decrease). Among urban hospitals, smaller hospitals (under 
200 beds) are most affected, with a 0.8 percent reduction in 
payments. For urban hospitals grouped by census division, Puerto 
Rico and the Middle Atlantic division have the smallest negative 
impacts, 0.2 and 0.4 percent decreases, respectively. The Middle 
Atlantic division has traditionally had the longest average lengths 
of stay, therefore, it is not surprising that the impact is smallest 
here. Transfer cases with a length of stay more than the (geometric) 
mean length of stay minus one day do not experience any payment 
impact under this provision. (Full payment is reached one day prior 
to the mean length of stay due to the double per diem paid for the 
first day under our current transfer payment methodology.) The small 
impact in Puerto Rico would indicate that these hospitals also are 
not discharging patients to postacute care early in the stay.
    Rural hospitals experience a smaller payment impact overall, 
especially the smallest rural hospitals: Those with fewer than 50 
beds (a 0.3 percent decrease). The smallest impacts among rural 
census divisions are in the Middle Atlantic and the Mountain. The 
largest rural impact is in the Pacific division, with a 0.6 percent 
decrease. This change is consistent with the shorter lengths of stay 
in this geographic region.
    The largest negative impact is a 0.9 percent decrease in 
payments, observed among urban West South Central hospitals, and 
proprietary hospitals. The smallest negative impact besides urban 
Puerto Rico hospitals occurs in SCHs (0.2 percent decrease). Those 
SCHs paid based on their hospital-specific amount would see no 
impact related to this change, since there is no transfer adjustment 
made to the hospital-specific amount.

C. Impact of the Proposed Changes to the DRG Classifications and 
Relative Weights (Column 2)

    In column 2 of Table I, we present the combined effects of the 
DRG reclassifications and recalibration, as discussed in section II 
of the preamble to this proposed rule. Section 1886(d)(4)(C)(I) of 
the Act requires us to annually make appropriate classification 
changes and to recalibrate the DRG weights in order to reflect 
changes in treatment patterns, technology, and any other factors 
that may change the relative use of hospital resources.
    We compared aggregate payments using the FY 1998 DRG relative 
weights (GROUPER version 15) to aggregate payments using the 
proposed FY 1999 DRG relative weights (GROUPER version 16). Overall, 
payments increase by 0.1 percent due to the DRG changes, although 
this is prior to applying the budget neutrality factor for DRG and 
wage index changes (see column 6). Consistent with the minor changes 
we are proposing for the FY 1999 GROUPER, the redistributional 
impacts of DRG reclassifications and recalibration across hospital 
groups are very small (a 0.1 percent increase for large and other 
urban hospitals, as well as for rural hospitals). Within hospital 
categories, the net effects for urban hospitals are small positive 
changes for all hospitals (a 0.2 percent increase for hospitals with 
fewer than 200 beds and a 0.1 percent increase for larger 
hospitals). Among rural hospitals, all hospital categories 
experience an increase of 0.1 percent.
    The breakdowns by urban census division show that the increase 
among urban hospitals is spread across all census categories, with 
the largest increase (0.3 percent) for hospitals in Puerto Rico. For 
rural hospitals, there is no impact (that is, a 0.0 percent change) 
for hospitals in the New England, West North Central, and Mountain 
census divisions. All other divisions experience a 0.1 percent 
increase.
    This pattern of small increases or no change applies to all 
other hospital categories. Overall, we attribute this change to the 
increasing severity of illness of

[[Page 25686]]

hospital inpatients. That is, as greater numbers of less acutely ill 
patients are treated outside the inpatient setting, the acuity of 
the remaining hospital inpatients increases. Although, in the past, 
this effect was seen more clearly in large urban and very large 
rural hospitals, which often had more outpatient settings available 
for patient treatment, hospitals in all areas now appear to be able 
to take advantage of this practice. Of course, in general, these 
positive impacts are very minor, with virtually no hospital group 
experiencing more than a 0.2 percent increase.

D. Impact of Updating the Wage Data (Column 3)

    Section 1886(d)(3)(E) of the Act requires that, beginning 
October 1, 1993, we annually update the wage data used to calculate 
the wage index. In accordance with this requirement, the proposed 
wage index for FY 1999 is based on data submitted for hospital cost 
reporting periods beginning on or after October 1, 1994 and before 
October 1, 1995. As with the previous column, the impact of the new 
data on hospital payments is isolated by holding the other payment 
parameters constant in the two simulations. That is, column 3 shows 
the percentage changes in payments when going from a model using the 
FY 1998 wage index based on FY 1994 wage data before geographic 
reclassifications to a model using the FY 1999 prereclassification 
wage index based on FY 1995 wage data.
    The wage data collected on the FY 1995 cost reports includes, 
for the first time, contract labor costs and hours for top 
management positions as allowable in the wage index calculation. In 
addition, the changes to wage-related costs associated with hospital 
and home office salaries that were discussed in the September 1, 
1994 final rule (59 FR 45355) are reflected in the FY 1995 data. 
These changes are reflected in column 3, as well as other year-to-
year changes in hospitals' labor costs.
    The results indicate that the new wage data have an overall 
impact of a 0.1 percent increase in hospital payments (prior to 
applying the budget neutrality factor, see column 6). Rural 
hospitals especially appear to benefit from the update. Their 
payments increase by 0.9 percent. These increases are attributable 
to relatively large increases in the wage index values for the rural 
areas of particular States; South Dakota, Hawaii, Mississippi, 
Wyoming, New Hampshire, and Iowa all had increases greater than 6 
percent in their prereclassification wage index values.
    Urban hospitals as a group are not significantly affected by the 
updated wage data. The gains of hospitals in other urban areas (0.4 
percent increase) are offset by decreases among hospitals in large 
urban areas (0.3 percent decrease). The negative impact among large 
urban areas appears to be largely due to a 5.8 percent decrease in 
the wage index values for the Boston MSA. This impact is especially 
evident in the 2.4 percent decrease for urban New England hospitals. 
Urban West South Central hospitals experience a 1.1 percent 
decrease, largely due to 11 Texas MSAs with FY 1999 wage indexes 
that fall by more than 7 percent. These appear to be primarily 
related to large changes in the average hourly wages of individual 
hospitals in MSAs with only a few hospitals. We would point out that 
the wage data used for the proposed wage index is not final, and we 
understand that many hospitals have submitted revision requests. To 
the extent these requests are granted by hospitals' fiscal 
intermediaries, these revisions are likely to affect the impacts 
shown in the final rule. In addition, we continue to verify the 
accuracy of the data for hospitals with extraordinary changes in 
their data from the prior year. We anticipate that all these 
verifications will be completed when we calculate the final FY 1999 
wage index.
    The largest increases are seen in the rural census divisions. 
Rural Puerto Rico experiences the greatest positive impact, 2.3 
percent. Hospitals in three other census divisions receive positive 
impacts over 1.0 percent; East South Central at 1.5 percent, New 
England at 1.3 percent, and West North Central at 1.1 percent. We 
believe these positive impacts of the new wage data for rural 
hospitals stem from the expansion of the contract labor definition, 
specifically to include certain management categories. On average, 
the hourly cost of contract labor increased for rural hospitals by 
5.9 percent. Among urban hospitals, the increase was 4.2 percent.

E. Impact of Including Contract Physician Part A Costs (Column 4)

    As discussed in section III.C.1 of the preamble, we began 
collecting separate wage data for both direct and contract physician 
Part A services on the FY 1995 cost report. This change was made in 
order to address any potential inequity of including only salaried 
Part A physician costs in the wage index while some States had laws 
prohibiting their hospitals from employing physicians directly 
(forcing hospitals to contract with physicians for administrative 
services). Based on our analysis, we are proposing to include 
contract physician Part A costs in the wage index calculation.
    Column 4 shows the payment impacts of including these data. 
Although only two States currently maintain the prohibition against 
hospitals directly employing physicians (Texas and California), many 
hospitals in other States reported these costs as well. Thus, the 
impacts of this proposed change extend well beyond Texas and 
California. In fact, the urban Middle Atlantic census division shows 
the largest positive impact from this change (0.3 percent).
    In general, hospitals in other areas experience either no 
changes due to this proposed policy, or small (0.1 percent) 
increases or decreases. However, urban hospitals in Puerto Rico and 
rural hospitals in the East North Central census division experience 
0.3 percent decreases. The negative rural East North Central impact 
is largely due to a negative impact of this change on the rural 
Wisconsin wage index.
    As noted above, the data used to prepare the proposed FY 1999 
wage index are subject to revision, and we understand that many 
hospitals requested changes to their contract physician Part A costs 
prior to the March 9 deadline for all requests for wage data changes 
to be submitted to the fiscal intermediaries. The extent of these 
requests and the number which are approved by the fiscal 
intermediaries may change the impacts in the final rule.

F. Impact of Removing Overhead Costs of Excluded Areas (Column 5)

    Prior years' wage index calculations have removed the direct 
wages and hours associated with certain subprovider components 
excluded from the prospective payment system; however, the overhead 
costs associated with these excluded components have not been 
removed. We revised the FY 1995 cost report to allow hospitals to 
report separately overhead salaries and hours, and we are proposing 
to remove the overhead costs and hours allocated to areas of the 
hospital excluded from the wage index calculation.
    Column 5 displays the impacts on FY 1999 payments per case of 
implementing this change. The overall impact is a 0.1 percent 
decline in payments; however, once again (as with the impacts of the 
FY 1995 data), the impact diverges along urban and rural lines. 
Urban hospitals lose 0.2 percent as a result of removing these 
overhead costs, while rural hospitals gain 0.3 percent. Among rural 
hospitals by bed size, the smallest rural hospitals benefit the 
most, with a 0.5 percent increase for rural hospitals with fewer 
than 50 beds.
    Hospitals in the rural West North Central census division 
experience the largest percentage increase (0.7 percent). The 
largest negative impacts are in Puerto Rico (urban and rural), and 
urban East North Central and urban East South Central.
    The combined wage index changes in Table I are determined by 
summing the individual impacts in columns 3, 4, and 5. For example, 
the rural West North Central census division gains 1.1 percent from 
the new wage data, and 0.7 percent from removing the overhead costs 
allocated to excluded areas. Therefore, the combined impact of the 
FY 1999 wage index for these hospitals is a 1.8 percent increase.
    The following chart compares the shifts in wage index values for 
labor market areas for FY 1999 relative to FY 1998. This chart 
demonstrates the impact of the proposed changes for the FY 1999 wage 
index relative to the FY 1998 wage index. The majority of labor 
market areas (282) experience less than a 5 percent change. A total 
of 54 labor market areas experience an increase of more than 5 
percent with 13 having an increase greater than 10 percent. A total 
of 34 areas experience decreases of more than 5 percent (all urban). 
Of those, 6 decline by 10 percent or more.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       Number of labor  
                                                        market areas    
    Percentage change in area wage index values    ---------------------
                                                     FY 1998    FY 1999 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Increase more than 10 percent.....................          2         13
Increase more than 5 percent and less than 10                           
 percent..........................................         24         41
Increase or decrease less than 5 percent..........        334        282

[[Page 25687]]

                                                                        
Decrease more than 5 percent and less than 10                           
 percent..........................................          9         28
Decrease more than 10 percent.....................          1          6
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Among urban hospitals, 164 would experience an increase of more 
than 5 percent and 29 more than 10 percent. More rural hospitals 
have increases greater than 5 percent (360), but none greater than 
10 percent. On the negative side, 268 urban hospitals but no rural 
hospitals have decreases in their wage index values of at least 5 
percent (30 of the urban hospitals have decreases greater than 10 
percent). The following chart shows the projected impact for urban 
and rural hospitals.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Number of hospitals
    Percentage change in area wage index values    ---------------------
                                                      Urban      Rural  
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Increase more than 10 percent.....................         29          0
Increase more than 5 percent and less than 10                           
 percent..........................................        164        360
Increase or decrease less than 5 percent..........       2440       1924
Decrease more than 5 percent and less than 10                           
 percent..........................................        238          0
Decrease more than 10 percent.....................         30          0
------------------------------------------------------------------------

G. Combined Impact of DRG and Wage Index Changes--Including Budget 
Neutrality Adjustment (Column 6)

    The impact of DRG reclassifications and recalibration on 
aggregate payments is required by section 1886(d)(4)(C)(iii) of the 
Act to be budget neutral. In addition, section 1886(d)(3)(E) of the 
Act specifies that any updates or adjustments to the wage index are 
to be budget neutral. As noted in the Addendum to this proposed 
rule, we compared aggregate payments using the FY 1998 DRG relative 
weights and wage index to aggregate payments using the FY 1999 DRG 
relative weights and wage index. Based on this comparison, we 
computed a wage and recalibration budget neutrality factor of 
0.999227. In Table I, the combined overall impacts of the effects of 
both the DRG reclassifications and recalibration and the updated 
wage index are shown in column 6. The 0.0 percent impact for All 
Hospitals demonstrates that these changes, in combination with the 
budget neutrality factor, are budget neutral.
    For the most part, the changes in this column are the sum of the 
changes in columns 2, 3, 4, and 5, minus approximately 0.1 percent 
attributable to the budget neutrality factor. There may, of course, 
be some variation of plus or minus 0.1 percent due to rounding.

H. Impact of MGCRB Reclassifications (Column 7)

    Our impact analysis to this point has assumed hospitals are paid 
on the basis of their actual geographic location (with the exception 
of ongoing policies that provide that certain hospitals receive 
payments on bases other than where they are geographically located, 
such as hospitals in rural counties that are deemed urban under 
section 1886(d)(8)(B) of the Act). The changes in column 7 reflect 
the per case payment impact of moving from this baseline to a 
simulation incorporating the MGCRB decisions for FY 1999. As noted 
below, these decisions affect hospitals' standardized amount and 
wage index area assignments. In addition, rural hospitals 
reclassified for purposes of the standardized amount qualify to be 
treated as urban for purposes of the DSH adjustment.
    Beginning in 1998, by February 28 of each year, the MGCRB makes 
reclassification determinations that will be effective for the next 
fiscal year, which begins on October 1. (In previous years, these 
determinations were made by March 30.) The MGCRB may approve a 
hospital's reclassification request for the purpose of using the 
other area's standardized amount, wage index value, or both or for 
FYS 1999-2001 for purposes of qualifying for a DSH adjustment or to 
receive a higher DSH payment.
    The proposed FY 1999 wage index values incorporate all of the 
MGCRB's reclassification decisions for FY 1999. The wage index 
values also reflect any decisions made by the HCFA Administrator 
through the appeals and review process for MGCRB decisions as of 
February 27, 1998. Additional changes that result from the 
Administrator's review of MGCRB decisions or a request by a hospital 
to withdraw its application will be reflected in the final rule for 
FY 1999.
    The overall effect of geographic reclassification is required by 
section 1886(d)(8)(D) of the Act to be budget neutral. Therefore, we 
applied an adjustment of 0.994019 to ensure that the effects of 
reclassification are budget neutral. (See section II.A.4 of the 
Addendum to this proposed rule.)
    As a group, rural hospitals benefit from geographic 
reclassification. Their payments rise 2.4 percent, while payments to 
urban hospitals decline 0.4 percent. Hospitals in other urban areas 
see a decrease in payments of 0.3 percent, while large urban 
hospitals lose 0.4 percent. Among urban hospital groups (that is, 
bed size, census division, and special payment status), payments 
generally decline.
    A positive impact is evident among all rural hospital groups 
except the smallest hospitals (under 50 beds), which experience a 
slight decrease of 0.1 percent. The smallest increase among the 
rural census divisions is 0.6 percent for New England. The largest 
increase is in rural South Atlantic, with an increase of 3.3 
percent.
    Among rural hospitals designated as RRCs, 108 hospitals are 
reclassified for purposes of the wage index only, leading to the 5.6 
percent increase in payments among RRCs overall. This positive 
impact on RRCs is also reflected in the category of rural hospitals 
with 200 or more beds, which has a 4.6 percent increase in payments.
    Rural hospitals reclassified for FY 1998 and FY 1999 experience 
a 6.6 percent increase in payments. This may be due to the fact that 
these hospitals have the most to gain from reclassification and have 
been reclassified for a period of years. Rural hospitals 
reclassified for FY 1999 only experience a 4.4 percent increase in 
payments, while rural hospitals reclassified for FY 1998 only 
experience a 0.5 percent decrease in payments. Urban hospitals 
reclassified for FY 1998 but not FY 1999 experience a 0.6 percent 
decline in payments overall. Urban hospitals reclassified for FY 
1999 but not for FY 1998 experience a 3.1 percent increase in 
payments.
    The FY 1999 Reclassification rows of Table I show the changes in 
payments per case for all FY 1999 reclassified and nonreclassified 
hospitals in urban and rural locations for each of the three 
reclassification categories (standardized amount only, wage index 
only, or both). The table illustrates that the largest impact for 
reclassified rural hospitals is for those hospitals reclassified for 
both the standardized amount and the wage index. These hospitals 
receive a 9.2 percent increase in payments. In addition, rural 
hospitals reclassified just for the wage index receive a 6.1 percent 
payment increase. The overall impact on reclassified hospitals is to 
increase their payments per case by an average of 5.7 percent for FY 
1999.
    Among the 27 rural hospitals deemed to be urban under section 
1886(d)(8)(B) of the Act, payments increase 0.7 percent due to MGCRB 
reclassification. This is because, although these hospitals are 
treated as being attached to an urban area in our baseline (their 
redesignation is ongoing, rather than annual like the MGCRB 
reclassifications), they are eligible for MGCRB reclassification. 
For FY 1999, one hospital in this category reclassified to a large 
urban area.
    The reclassification of hospitals primarily affects payment to 
nonreclassified hospitals through changes in the wage index and the 
geographic reclassification budget neutrality adjustment required by 
section 1886(d)(8)(D) of the Act. Among hospitals that are not 
reclassified, the overall impact of hospital reclassifications is an 
average decrease in payments per case of about 0.4 percent. Rural 
nonreclassified hospitals decrease slightly more, experiencing a 0.5 
percent decrease, and urban nonreclassified hospitals lose 0.6 
percent (the amount of the budget neutrality offset).
    The number of reclassifications for purposes of the standardized 
amount, or for both the standardized amount and the wage index, has 
increased from 149 in FY 1998 to 162 in FY 1999. The number of wage 
index only reclassifications increased from 284 in FY 1998 to 358 in 
FY 1999. These increases are mainly attributable to two changes made 
by the BBA. Section 4202 of the BBA amended section 1886(d)(10)(D) 
of the Act to allow RRCs to reclassify for wage index purposes based 
only on comparison of the RRC's average hourly wage to the average 
hourly wage of the area to which it applies to be reclassified. In 
addition, section 4203 provides that for FYs 1999-2001, a rural

[[Page 25688]]

hospital may be reclassified to an other urban area for the sole 
purpose of receiving a higher DSH payment.
    The foregoing analysis was based on MGCRB and HCFA Administrator 
decisions made by February 27 of this year. As previously noted, 
there may be changes to some MGCRB decisions through the appeals, 
review, and applicant withdrawal process. The outcome of these cases 
will be reflected in the analysis presented in the final rule.

I. All Changes (Column 8)

    Column 8 compares our estimate of payments per case, 
incorporating all changes reflected in this proposed rule for FY 
1999 (including statutory changes), to our estimate of payments per 
case in FY 1998. It includes the effects of the 0.7 percent update 
to the standardized amounts and the hospital-specific rates for 
SCHs, EACHs, and MDHs. It also reflects the 0.3 percentage point 
difference between the projected outlier payments in FY 1999 (5.1 
percent of total DRG payments) and the current estimate of the 
percentage of actual outlier payments in FY 1998 (5.4 percent), as 
described in the introduction to this Appendix and the Addendum to 
this proposed rule.
    Additional changes affecting the difference between FY 1998 and 
FY 1999 payments are the reductions to the IME and DSH adjustments 
enacted by the BBA. These changes initially went into effect during 
FY 1998 and include additional decreases in payment for each of 
several succeeding years. As noted in the introduction to this 
impact analysis, for FY 1999, IME is reduced to approximately a 6.5 
percent rate of increase, and DSH is reduced by 2 percent from what 
hospitals otherwise would receive. We estimate the overall effect of 
these statutory changes to be a 0.4 percent reduction in FY 1999 
payments. For hospitals receiving both IME and DSH, the impact is 
estimated to be a 0.9 percent reduction in payments per case.
    We also note that column 8 includes the impacts of FY 1999 MGCRB 
reclassifications compared to the payment impacts of FY 1998 
reclassifications. Therefore, when comparing FY 1999 payments to FY 
1998, the percent changes due to FY 1999 reclassifications shown in 
column 7 need to be offset by the effects of reclassification on 
hospitals' FY 1998 payments (column 7 of Table 1, August 29, 1997 
final rule with comment period; 62 FR 46119). For example, the 
impact of MGCRB reclassifications on rural hospitals' FY 1998 
payments was approximately a 2.2 percent increase, offsetting much 
of the 2.4 percent increase in column 7 for FY 1999. Therefore, the 
net change in FY 1999 payments due to reclassification for rural 
hospitals is actually closer to an increase of 0.2 percent relative 
to FY 1998. However, last year's analysis contained a somewhat 
different set of hospitals, so this might affect the numbers 
slightly.
    There might also be interactive effects among the various 
factors comprising the payment system that we are not able to 
isolate. For these reasons, the values in column 8 may not equal the 
sum of the changes in columns 1, 6, and 7, plus the other impacts 
that we are able to identify.
    The overall payment change from FY 1998 to FY 1999 for all 
hospitals is a 0.7 percent decrease. This reflects the 0.6 percent 
net change in total payments due to the postacute transfer change 
for FY 1999 shown in column 1; the 0.7 percent update for FY 1999, 
the 0.3 percent lower outlier payments in FY 1999 compared to FY 
1998 (5.1 percent compared to 5.4 percent); and the 0.4 percent 
reduction due to lower IME and DSH payments.
    Hospitals in urban areas experience a 1.1 percent drop in 
payments per case compared to FY 1998. Urban hospitals lose 0.9 
percent due to the expanded transfer definition and the DRG and wage 
index changes combined. The 0.4 percent negative impact due to 
reclassification is offset by an identical negative impact for FY 
1998. The impact of reducing IME and DSH is a 0.6 percent reduction 
in FY 1999 payments per case. Most of this negative impact is 
incurred by hospitals in large urban areas, where payments are 
expected to fall 1.4 percent per case compared to 0.5 percent per 
case for hospitals in other urban areas.
    Hospitals in rural areas, meanwhile, experience a 1.5 percent 
payment increase. As discussed previously, this is primarily due to 
a smaller negative impact due to the expanded transfer definition 
(0.4 percent decrease compared to 0.6 percent nationally) and the 
positive effect due to the wage index and DRG changes (1.3 percent 
increase).
    Among census divisions, urban New England displays the largest 
negative impact, 3.5 percent. This outcome is primarily related to the 
2.4 percent decrease due to the new wage data. Similarly, urban West 
South Central experiences a 2.0 percent drop in payments per case, due 
to a 1.1 percent drop due to the new wage data. The urban East North 
Central and the urban Pacific also experience overall payment declines 
of more than 1.0 percent, with 1.5 and 1.4 percent decreases, 
respectively. The West North Central is the only urban census category 
to experience a rise in payments, stemming primarily from a 0.9 percent 
increase due to the new wage data. Hospitals in this census division 
also are less reliant on IME and DSH funding, and are therefore, 
impacted less by these reductions.
    The only rural census division to experience a negative payment 
impact is New England (0.4 percent fall). This appears to result from a 
much smaller reclassification effect for rural New England hospitals in 
FY 1999. For FY 1998, the impact of MGCRB reclassification for these 
hospitals was a 2.1 percent increase (see 62 FR 46119). For FY 1999, 
the increase is only 0.6 percent. The largest increases by rural census 
division are in the South Atlantic and the East South Central, both 
with 2.0 percent increases in their FY 1999 payments per case. In the 
South Atlantic, this is primarily due to a larger FY 1999 benefit from 
MGCRB reclassifications. For the East South Central, it is largely due 
to a 1.5 percent increase from the FY 1995 wage data.
    Among special categories of rural hospitals, RRCs have the largest 
increase, 2.5 percent. This carries over to other categories as well: 
rural hospitals with between 150 and 200 beds have a 2.7 percent rise 
in payments (there are 37 RRCs in this category); and RRCs receiving 
DSH see a 2.9 percent increase.
    The largest negative payment impacts from FY 1998 to FY 1999 are 
among hospitals that were reclassified for FY 1998 and are not 
reclassified for FY 1999. Overall, these hospitals lose 3.1 percent. 
The urban hospitals in this category lose 2.2 percent, while the rural 
hospitals lose 6.1 percent. On the other hand, hospitals reclassified 
for FY 1999 that were not reclassified for FY 1998 would experience the 
greatest payment increases: 4.7 percent overall; 6.1 percent for 153 
rural hospitals in this category and 1.9 percent for 25 urban 
hospitals.

             Table II.--Impact Analysis of Changes for FY 1999 Operating Prospective Payment System             
                                               [Payments per case]                                              
                                                                                                                
                                                                            Average FY   Average FY             
                                                               Number of       1998         1999                
                                                               hospitals   payment per  payment per  All changes
                                                                               case         case                
                                                                      (1)      (2) \1\      (3) \1\          (4)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION):                                                                                       
    ALL HOSPITALS...........................................        4,956        6,764        6,715         -0.7
    URBAN HOSPITALS.........................................        2,792        7,332        7,255         -1.1
    LARGE URBAN AREAS.......................................        1,588        7,891        7,782         -1.4

[[Page 25689]]

                                                                                                                
    OTHER URBAN AREAS.......................................        1,204        6,584        6,549         -0.5
    RURAL AREAS.............................................        2,164        4,461        4,528          1.5
BED SIZE (URBAN):                                                                                               
    0-99 BEDS...............................................          690        4,922        4,890         -0.7
    100-199 BEDS............................................          936        6,127        6,069         -1.0
    200-299 BEDS............................................          566        6,921        6,860         -0.9
    300-499 BEDS............................................          448        7,839        7,744         -1.2
    500 OR MORE BEDS........................................          152        9,724        9,607         -1.2
BED SIZE (RURAL):                                                                                               
    0-49 BEDS...............................................        1,135        3,663        3,712          1.3
    50-99 BEDS..............................................          635        4,173        4,218          1.1
    100-149 BEDS............................................          229        4,609        4,669          1.3
    150-199 BEDS............................................           91        4,799        4,927          2.7
    200 OR MORE BEDS........................................           74        5,603        5,692          1.6
URBAN BY CENSUS DIV.:                                                                                           
    NEW ENGLAND.............................................          152        7,873        7,597         -3.5
    MIDDLE ATLANTIC.........................................          425        8,168        8,123         -0.5
    SOUTH ATLANTIC..........................................          413        6,973        6,955         -0.3
    EAST NORTH CENTRAL......................................          475        7,016        6,909         -1.5
    EAST SOUTH CENTRAL......................................          159        6,558        6,511         -0.7
    WEST NORTH CENTRAL......................................          186        7,001        7,011          0.1
    WEST SOUTH CENTRAL......................................          350        6,807        6,672         -2.0
    MOUNTAIN................................................          126        7,065        7,045         -0.3
    PACIFIC.................................................          458        8,403        8,289         -1.4
    PUERTO RICO.............................................           48        3,049        3,057          0.3
RURAL BY CENSUS DIV.:                                                                                           
    NEW ENGLAND.............................................           53        5,308        5,285         -0.4
    MIDDLE ATLANTIC.........................................           80        4,802        4,857          1.1
    SOUTH ATLANTIC..........................................          286        4,606        4,697          2.0
    EAST NORTH CENTRAL......................................          284        4,492        4,559          1.5
    EAST SOUTH CENTRAL......................................          269        4,160        4,242          2.0
    WEST NORTH CENTRAL......................................          499        4,174        4,250          1.8
    WEST SOUTH CENTRAL......................................          341        3,989        4,019          0.7
    MOUNTAIN................................................          206        4,815        4,871          1.2
    PACIFIC.................................................          141        5,603        5,664          1.1
    PUERTO RICO.............................................            5        2,369        2,389          0.8
(BY PAYMENT CATEGORIES):                                                                                        
    URBAN HOSPITALS.........................................        2,877        7,289        7,215         -1.0
    LARGE URBAN AREAS.......................................        1,681        7,795        7,691         -1.3
    OTHER URBAN AREAS.......................................        1,196        6,564        6,533         -0.5
    RURAL AREAS.............................................        2,079        4,440        4,501          1.4
TEACHING STATUS:                                                                                                
    NON-TEACHING............................................        3,875        5,478        5,472         -0.1
    FEWER THAN 100 RESIDENTS................................          841        7,219        7,155         -0.9
    100 OR MORE RESIDENTS...................................          240       10,987       10,796         -1.7
DISPROPORTIONATE SHARE HOSPITALS (DSH):                                                                         
    NON-DSH.................................................        3,074        5,830        5,809         -0.4
    URBAN DSH:                                                                                                  
        100 BEDS OR MORE....................................        1,402        7,941        7,850         -1.1
        FEWER THAN 100 BEDS...........................